Login for the live WLWs on Monday’s and Wednesday mornings at 8am EDT.

You will have to register for the first webinar of each month, but after that you will not have to register again until there is a new link.

The link changes every month, but you can always find it under the “Training” Category or in the Calendar section of the Blog.

Archived sessions will be in individual postings labeled “Watchlist Webinar for DATE”

I hope you can attend!! 
Triffany

• Recommend on Facebook
• Buzz it up
• Tweet about it

One of the reasons I recommend SO much backtesting is because of the intrinsic learning that goes on while one is testing.  (Stay with me here…it is relevant, I promise).

Intrinsic learning is the deeper level learning that happens without our even knowing it.  Take any profession, any field, and the person who has been doing it longer will almost always outshine the person who just studied all of the latest and greatest information.  That isn’t simply because of longevity in the field, it is because over the course of the masters’ time learning s/he has been subconsciously and unconsciously picking up tidbits, details, tiny little indicators and clues along the way that they couldn’t actually teach to someone even if they tried.  The lessons are too deep and often there aren’t even words to describe what the expert knows… it is just that they know it.

This is the level of expertise where people begin to describe the expert as a sage, “He just intuits the [insert situation].”  Is it true intuition as we often think of it?  Maybe s/he’s really reaching into the ether and extrapolating answers.  Maybe s/he’s just calling upon the deeper understanding that has developed over time.  Maybe s/he’s doing a little of both.

That is wonderful theory, but it doesn’t really answer the question that was asked, “Should intuition be used in a trade or should rules be strictly adhered to?”

A beginner should always just follow the rules because you have to start somewhere.  After a while it is inevitable that the experience that has been built will start to speak to you and it can be a difficult leap to go from the structural experience of the system to the life experience of actually trading.

Here’s what I recommend:

Keep a good record of those trades where you’ve knowingly incorporated your intuition.  The trades you skipped and the trades that you took should all be recorded.  At the end of a trading cycle (day/week/month – whatever a cycle is for your timeframe) review those trades and see if they’re working to enhance your system or destroy it.   If they’re improving what you do, you can rest a little easier and trust your instincts a little more.  If they’re depleting your account, go back to your structure for a bit and when (not if) you start to feel intuition come back into play start keeping track again.

The caveat to this is that a certain amount of intuition will come into your trading over time whether you’re conscious of it or not.  However, if you are noticing something other than your rules sneak into your trading, don’t disregard it entirely.  Entertain it, give it a chance, it could be introducing itself for a reason and might go a long way toward improving your trading as well as your belief system about your ability to trade well.

What do you think?

Next week:  Part 2 – Is it Intuition or Emotion?

• Recommend on Facebook
• Buzz it up
• Tweet about it

I always love seeing these discussions and the turns they take!

You’re a great group!!

Be good to you!
Triffany

• Recommend on Facebook
• Buzz it up
• Tweet about it

Let me know what you’re watching/trading.  I should be closer to being caught up today and will try to pay closer attention to the blog.  I love hearing what you’re up to. 

Look for the August WLW link to come out very soon, too.

___

Watchlist Webinars are free to members and happen on Mondays and Wednesdays  at 8am EDT.  You can register to attend using the link in the blog category “Training” that says “[name of month]’s wlw link”.  Once you’re registered, you’ll receive reminders for the month from Citrix.  Once a new month begins you’ll have to register for the new room using the same link in the “Training” of the blog.

There are also free webinars at FX Street (www.fxstreet.com) on Tuesdays at 12:00 (noon) EDT.

____

Remember:  The purpose of these trade alerts and watchlists is to keep discussion going about what’s going on in the marketplace.  It is not my intention to have you trade what I trade, simply to tell you which trades I take that we’ve talked about at the WLWs.

In order to make this the best learning opportunity for you, it’s important that you share your thoughts and ideas on the charts, fundamentals, psychology, or whatever you need.

• Recommend on Facebook
• Buzz it up
• Tweet about it

Remember:  The purpose of these trade alerts and watchlists is to keep discussion going about what’s going on in the marketplace.  It is not my intention to have you trade what I trade, simply to tell you which trades I take that we’ve talked about at the WLWs.

In order to make this the best learning opportunity for you, it’s important that you share your thoughts and ideas on the charts, fundamentals, psychology, or whatever you need.

Looks like risk is on this early NY Session as the USD and the JPY sell off.

EUR/USD:  Triggering right now and looks to be headed to 1.3240 or so
USD/CAD:  Triggered yesterday and is making a fresh break southward at least to 1.015 and possibly even closer to parity.
NZD/USD:  Also Triggered yesterday and is making a fresh break, but the range is narrower – and the 200% level has already been hit.
GBP/USD:  Trend side look tired and I’m tempted to put in a counter trend trade, but will wait for a signal…a close below 1.5520 possibly?

That’s what I’m watching for today.  How about you?

• Recommend on Facebook
• Buzz it up
• Tweet about it

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

Password:

• Recommend on Facebook
• Buzz it up
• Tweet about it

Thanks for your understanding during my time away last week.

Give me some time to get caught up this week and everything should be back on track very soon.

Be good to you!
Triffany

• Recommend on Facebook
• Buzz it up
• Tweet about it

Feel free to use this thread throughout the week to stay in touch with one another and I’ll see you again on Monday, July 26, 2010 for the Watchlist Webinar at 8am EDT.

I hope you’re well and happy!!
Triffany

• Recommend on Facebook
• Buzz it up
• Tweet about it

Monday, July 12, 2010:

Slow news day left nothing more than a pullback against the USD as the market awaits some news that gives them the thumbs up to trade again.

The Euro was lifted to new highs on Sunday’s positive outlook for the week, but quickly returned to last week’s levels at 1.2620 and then lower through the NY session.  It seems that the Euro Zone’s efforts to put the onus for financial recovery first on the banks may stymie the Euro’s growth for the medium-term as stress tests will take time and the outcome is uncertain.  Long term it could pay off for the stretched Union since the more that the banks can pay for their own debt and damage the fewer state funds will be required to insure solvency.

The Cable left its weakened a tad on news that Britain’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers came in steady at .3%  in their MoM data but dipped a tad in the YoY report, from .2% to -.2%.

Without much else on the calendar, the market remains in a holding pattern.  Though it seems likely that some USD strengthening is in order after last week’s selloff.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010:

The market seemed to ignore Portugal’s downgrade by Moody and ignore bad jobs reports and focus on the strong equities markets and the strong T-bills auction in Greece bringing a lot of quick and emotional strength to the Euro during early NY Session.

The Pound, the Kiwi and the Yen all strengthened on that bit of positive news as well, though none nearly as strong as the Euro.

The British Pound did have some reason of its own to experience some strength in that their Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell again this month from .2% to .1%.  With all eyes on inflation and inflation control, this natural check to inflation has relieved the Bank of England (BoE) of some of the pressure to raise interest rates too soon.

The biggest note to self in today’s reaction to news is that the JPY didn’t follow the usual pattern of weakening on increased risk appetite.  Instead it has strengthened.  This decoupling could mean the end of the carry trade for a long, long, long time.  It could also mean big, big trouble for the Japanese economy which relies on a weakened currency to propel their export driven currency and is quickly running out of intervention options.  Not a good combination for Japan.

Recent New Zealand reports of an increase of both Credit Card Sales and Visitor Arrivals has predictably led to an increase in their Retail Sales boosting May’s numbers from -.3% to .4%.  Good news for the Kiwi as it stands to gain a lot of attention and money from a global marketplace that is looking to diversify into commodity currencies.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

More good news for the GBP today as their employment numbers have been reported to show that not as many jobs were lost in June as in May.   While it seems to be the kind of news that is merely “less bad” it is still movement in the right direction and being coupled with yesterday’s decrease in CPI numbers may give Britons some breathing room and move to further inject market confidence into foreign exchange.

The Euro stays somewhat steady after a quick rise above resistance during the early NY session. Buying sentiment seems to be waning as directional movements are getting smaller and losing momentum.  The market has a lot of good news/bad news to weigh out of the EZ and it seems to be moving very cautiously into the wounded, but healing currency.

The US has reported some positive advance numbers for Retail Sales as well as a decrease in the Import Price Index, MoM from -.6% to -1.3%, YoY from 8.6% to 4.5%, which should go a long way toward negating the poor Trade Balance numbers that came out Tuesday.  The US is doing more importing than exporting right now – bad news for the long haul – but if they’re going to do it, it is better for manufacturing expenses and CPI that the import prices have decreased.

What is problematic for the USD, however, is the Fed’s outlook for long-term interest rates remaining near the zero mark as risks to recovery have remained intact, despite positive GDP and Employment in the first half of the year.  This shift in outlook is definitely discouraging as the mid-year was the goal for the Fed to begin backing out of stimulus injections and looking for growth measures.

The JPY got whipped around today as Japan’s budget plan has been called into question by the IMF as being too vague.  Interestingly Prime Minister Kan first proposed a sales tax increase over any budget cuts.  While that proposal did get shut down in parliament it does show a reluctant on the administrations part to rein in spending on a grander scale.  This could mean longer term hardship for the Japanese economy whose gross debt is already 215% of their GDP.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Risk appetite stays strong as US and equities earnings are beating estimates and European treasury instruments are selling well.

The Euro strengthened further on another surprise treasury auction, this time out of Spain.  To have two of the worst hit economies in the EU do so well has gone a long way toward keeping the market’s big buck in play.  The Pound, Kiwi and Yen seemed to ride the Euro’s coattails throughout the NY session as well.

It seems that BP’s small progress on the oil spill created a bit of a bump in the GBP as well, providing more buying momentum that just risk acceptance.

The Kiwi also had its own inherent reason to strengthen as New Zealand saw a decline in Consumer Price Index (CPI), QoQ from .4% to .3% and YoY from 2% to 1.8%.  Good news for such a Retail driven economy.

The USD had mixed new.  On the positive side the Producer prices have pulled back making manufacturing more affordable, on the negative side a couple precursors to GDP health have continued the pullback from last month.  The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey and the Industrial Production numbers all lost points in most recent reports.

Also…still an interesting note that the JPY strengthened on increased risk appetite once again.  Not its usual course of action when the market is feeling positive.

Friday, July 16, 2010

Big surprise in today’s news was a larger pullback in the EU’s trade balance than expected.  A pullback from 1.6B to .8B was expected in May however numbers plummeted to -3B.  This comes as a big surprise since it has been assumed that a weak Euro that makes their exports more affordable worldwide would help keep a better, albeit not ideal, balance in place.  The Euro experienced a very sharp selloff in response to the news.

Adding further fuel to the fire is a small rise in the US’s CPI, putting some inflationary pressure back on the USD.  Also of note out of the US is the Senate’s approval of financial reform. Shakeups in general tend to decrease risk appetite and that seems to be the case today as well as the USD makes abrupt gains on the news.

Interestingly, the Yen continues to strengthen as well.

The Loonie saw a slight rise in their Leading Indicators moving from .9% to 1% in June.  This number has hovered near 1% all year so that’s not a real reason to buy the CAD.  However, should we see an increase in Retail and Wholesale Sales it is likely that the three positive elements could point to good GDP for Canada.

Late NY Session the USD and JPY had one more buying rally as nose-diving equities and consumer confidence fueled market concerns about economic recovery.

Next Monday:

• AUD Reserve Bank News

Next Tuesday:

• EUR Germany’s Producer Prices
• CAD BoC Rate Decision
• NZD Visitor Arrivals

Next Wednesday:

• NZD Credit Card Spending
• GBP BoE Minutes
• CAD Wholesale Sales

Next Thursday:

• EUR Germany’s Services PMI
• GBP Retail Sales
• CAD Retail Sales
• USD Employment

Next Friday:

• GBP GDP
• CAD CPI

• Recommend on Facebook
• Buzz it up
• Tweet about it

This week I want to make an important distinction that could have easily been missed in last week’s article.

I used the word “want” a lot in that article and only near the end did I discuss “choice” but it is really the choice that is the most important.

If we spend our time wanting, even if we think we know exactly what we want, than we spend our time focusing our energies on what we don’t have already.  This is a sure-fire way to make ourselves miserable. We can deplete our energies entirely merely by focusing on want.

What is important for me to impart here is that while you DO need to identify what it is you’re really trying to manifest in your life it is the actual choice you make that becomes vitally important to your being able to create it or not.

Once you really choose an option that you find appealing you begin to assess your starting point.  That immediately brings your focus to what you have.  Once you’re dialed into what you have then you are building energy in your life that will help you create what it is you envisioned in the first place.

Here’s an example:

Let’s say Simon has always dreamed about being a lumberjack, but the course of his life has taken him to wherever he is now – let’s just say some office job.  He gets up and goes to work every single day to support his lifestyle and he can see that he really has a lot to be grateful for, but he’s not feeling it because when he looks around him all he can see is the walls of his house, the boxiness of his car and the confines of his cubicle.  Someone asks him what he wants.  A new job?  “No, I’d hate to have to start over new somewhere.”  A better relationship?  “No, we’re actually pretty comfortable with each other.”  What do you want?  “I want to be a lumberjack, but…” and he lists a diatribe of reasons why it won’t work or isn’t responsible.  Each excuse takes him further and further away from what it is he really wants.

If he makes the choice to become a lumberjack:

Suddenly Simon decides to become a lumberjack.  He hasn’t trained for it, he doesn’t know why he even wants to do it, but he has chosen to do it – once and for all.  Now he’s chockfull of energy and drive.  He has no idea how to go about becoming a lumberjack, but he knows he’s smart, he knows he’s got a supportive partner and resources to learn.  He’s focusing, now, on what he has.  His partner may even be excited to see some life breathed into Simon after all this time or…maybe Simon is able to recognize his partner as an enabler to his misery and have the strength to move on.

If he makes the choice to stick with what he’s already doing:

Maybe Simon decides to finally really be present in his current life and he realizes that if he’d really wanted to become a lumberjack he’d have done it.  Since he didn’t he’s going to choose to be the best darned cubicle dweller there is because it does provide him with security and that is really what he’s wanted all along.  Now he can look at security as his real choice and he’s going to recognize what he has going on in his life that provides that.

That recognition will lead to gratitude which will lead to happiness.

The point is that, one way or the other, Simon has finally made a choice. He first had to understand what it is he really wanted but he didn’t stay there.  He didn’t keep on wanting.

As traders it is easy to want the end result of trade.  Who doesn’t want fast, easy money?!  But we have to understand what it is we’ve chosen once we step off of that starting block and entered into the race.  We’ve chosen to learn and expand ourselves.  We’ve chosen to do something that others don’t understand.  We’ve chosen to forge a new path for ourselves and in doing so we’ve chosen to grow and expand and re-identify ourselves.

If you’re not energized by the thought of that process, perhaps you’re not ready to make the change or maybe this isn’t what you really want.

But…once you recognize the consequences of this choice you may be thrilled to start (or re-start) this journey. Now it is your task to focus on the choice.  What do you have that enables you to institute the change?  Good teachers, supportive friends, family or spouse?  A brain that is able to learn?  A discipline that is willing to re-awaken?  What do you have that fuels this endeavor?  Put your time, energy and focus there and you will find that you are no longer depleting yourself – you are energizing yourself and you are re-creating yourself into a trader.

Tell me 3 things that you have, right now, that enable your trading?  Which of those 3 things do you think could use some more focus and attention (read:  more gratefulness)?  Does it feel good to redirect to what you have (vs what you don’t)?

• Recommend on Facebook
• Buzz it up
• Tweet about it